Answers

Market commentary.

Notes on markets and policy, written for people with something at stake. A short piece each month, and a longer outlook at the turns of the year.

The Current

Our outlook series.

A longer-form read published at the turns of the year, covering what happened, what we are watching, and what it means for executives and families with concentrated wealth.

The Current · Nº 1 · Mid-Year Outlook

A strong half, a hawkish Fed, and a wider market.

Equities delivered double-digit gains through June while leadership broadened beyond the mega-caps — and the Federal Reserve turned its full attention back to inflation. Our read on the first half, what we are watching in the second, and what it means for concentrated wealth.

20 July 2026Chris Gatsch~12 min read

+10.2%

S&P 500 total return
H1 2026

+23.9%

S&P small-cap index
H1 2026

3.50–3.75%

Fed funds target range
held four meetings

3.6%

Fed's revised 2026
PCE inflation projection

01Executive summary
02How markets performed in the first half
03What the Federal Reserve is doing with rates
04How to position for the second half
05How the Omega Strategy is positioned
06What executives with equity comp should do now
07Key financial deadlines for the rest of the year
08Questions we're hearing from clients

Read the mid-year outlook

Monthly Notes

A shorter piece each month.

Every month we publish a short read on what actually moved — a rate decision, a policy change with a deadline attached, a market move large enough to matter to someone holding a concentrated position. Two or three minutes, written the week it happens.

30 July 2026

The Fed held rates steady. What the 9–3 vote means for you.

A divided committee, a hawkish hold, and what it changes for executives holding equity, carrying floating-rate debt, or weighing a conversion before year end.

How we write

What you will not find here.

We do not forecast. Not because forecasting is disreputable, but because a plan that depends on a correct forecast is fragile by construction. Our investment philosophy explains what we build instead.

We do not pad. A monthly note in a quiet month is a short note. The cadence is a commitment to show up, not a commitment to fill a word count — and the longer read, The Current, comes at the turns of the year when there is genuinely a half to account for.

We do not tell you what to do. Commentary is context. Decisions belong in a conversation where somebody has seen your actual balance sheet.

If you are looking for the durable material rather than the timely material, the guides are the better place to start. They answer a single question completely and do not go stale.

All guides Glossary

Next step

Start with a conversation.

Thirty minutes. We'll talk through what's happening, what's already decided, and what's still open. If we're not the right fit, we'll say so.

It's a conversation, not a pitch
No preparation required
No obligation of any kind

Schedule a Call

Not ready to talk? Download the Discovery Workbook — the questions we'd ask you, so you can work through them on your own time.